Bitcoin has finally broken above its 2026 high this week. This was the last missing signal that a new bull market has begun. Altcoins are also showing strength, with the largest cryptocurrencies rising alongside Bitcoin. The crypto market outlook is very positive right now.
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Bitcoin’s price has broken key resistance levels
At the time of this market review, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $84,100. When the previous market review was published, the price was $77,800. This is an 8% increase over three weeks.
Let’s examine Bitcoin’s price action using weekly candles. The blue trend line represents the 50-week moving average, while the purple trend line represents the 200-week moving average.
As the chart shows, Bitcoin’s price broke through significant resistance levels in September. Last week, the price broke above the 50-week moving average, a level that had acted as clear resistance for a month. Bitcoin rose 5.6% last week, closing approximately $2,000 above this trend line.
Many saw the break below the 50-week moving average (in the opposite direction) as the signal confirming the start of the bear market in November 2025. Now, the price has broken it again, and this time the breakthrough confirms a bull market.
Bitcoin’s price jumped almost 7% on Monday, indicating another clear sign of a coming bull market this week. This is because the daily candle closed at $86,600, which was $4,000 above the 2026 highs. We have commented in previous market updates that breaking the 2026 highs serves as the final confirmation of the start of a bull market. Bitcoin has now closed several daily candles above this level.
Unless an unexpected crash occurs, we anticipate the weekly candle will close above the 2026 highs. After that, there are no sound reasons to believe the bear market will continue.
If the bull market “officially” starts this week, it implies a trend of “higher highs and higher lows”—meaning every dip and peak occurs at a higher level than the previous one. In practical terms, this means Bitcoin’s price does not close below $76,000 on a weekly basis.
The price will likely test at least the key $82,000 level at some point.
Central banks are raising interest rates, yet prices keep rising
The most significant macroeconomic event of September came from the United States last week. The country’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.
Current Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been in charge only since the summer and is a Donald Trump appointee. Trump is known for demanding the Fed to lower the benchmark rate. He pressured Warsh’s predecessor, Jerome Powell, to cut rates almost from the very beginning of his presidency.
The graph below shows the Fed’s benchmark rate over time.
As the chart shows, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by only 1.7 percentage points. Why, then, did Warsh raise the rate against Trump’s wishes? Because the market forced his hand.
According to CME FedWatch, the market-implied probability of a rate hike stood at 93 percent prior to the Fed’s September meeting. Warsh had no choice but to raise rates—and he will likely have to do the same in October.
Why haven’t rate hikes slowed down the stock and crypto markets? This is happening even as the ECB raises its benchmark rate and the Bank of Japan’s benchmark rate sits at its highest level in over 30 years.
The reason is that interest rates remain too low despite the recent hikes. Many investors fail to grasp this.
What matters is not the act of raising rates itself, but the level of interest rates relative to the state of the economy. If the GDP is growing at a couple of percent and inflation is still running at nearly four percent, an interest rate of five percent is too low. For this reason, crypto investors shouldn’t get too worked up about central bank interest rate hikes—at least not yet.
Next, let’s look at another important event in the United States that impacted the crypto market last week.
CLARITY Act Fails in the US
Donald Trump’s election victory was widely celebrated within the crypto community in 2024. The previous administration had waged a direct war against the crypto industry, led by SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The industry lacked clear regulation, and many expected this to change following Trump’s victory.
While the Trump administration has implemented certain reforms, the most significant measure—the CLARITY Act—has stalled due to demands from Democrats. The bill has undergone numerous revisions.
Last Tuesday, a so-called cloture vote was held, intended to advance the CLARITY Act to Senate debate. It was not a vote on enacting the law, but merely a procedural step. However, the result was a massive disappointment, as not a single Democrat voted in favor of the CLARITY Act.
🚨 BREAKING: The CLARITY Act fails to secure the 60 votes needed to advance in the US Senate. pic.twitter.com/df0y9FxRWk
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) September 15, 2026
The bill’s failure at this stage surprised the market, and Bitcoin’s price fell by more than three percent. However, the situation changed rapidly. On Friday, the SEC announced new guidelines for tokenized stocks. This provided fresh upward momentum. The problem is that the SEC’s authority is limited. Its guidelines do not constitute legislative changes, so a future administration could overturn them.
It appears unlikely that the United States will see new crypto regulation anytime soon. Republicans are likely to suffer a major defeat in midterm elections, meaning the party’s influence will diminish further.
In the grand scheme, this is not a massive problem. The United States is just one part of the global crypto market, and the lack of regulation has not significantly hindered the industry’s development so far.
The altcoin market has also seen strong gains
Let’s take a look at the state of the altcoin market, where major cryptocurrencies have surged in Bitcoin’s wake. Most of the top 15 cryptocurrencies have gained slightly more than Bitcoin, which is encouraging.
The 2023–2025 bull market was a major disappointment for altcoin investors. Bitcoin’s dominance (market share) rose steadily from early 2023 through the summer of 2025. Only in the last few months of the bull market did altcoins show signs of life, yet most well-known coins remained far below their all-time highs (ATH).
The situation appears to be different. The graph below shows Bitcoin dominance on a weekly chart.
As the chart illustrates, Bitcoin’s market share has remained stable for a year. It dipped to around 57% in September 2025, after which Bitcoin dominance has fluctuated primarily between 58% and 60%.
In other words, altcoins have risen at roughly the same pace as Bitcoin. In fact, the price charts for many well-known coins look even better than Bitcoin’s. Many altcoins broke their early-year highs a month ago, whereas Bitcoin only broke through this resistance level this week.
These signs suggest the next bull cycle could be more favorable for altcoin investors than the previous one.
No major changes in the big picture
Finally, let’s look at the situation for Bitcoin (and the entire crypto market) from a broader perspective. Three weeks ago, we highlighted two key points:
- The final confirmation for the new bull market is still missing
- September has historically been one of the weakest months of the year
We now have new data regarding both points. As noted at the beginning of the market review, Bitcoin’s price broke past the 2026 highs this week. This was the most important missing signal for a bull market to begin. Investors also want to see a weekly candle close above the previous highs. If that happens, the bull market could be declared officially underway.
Even if Bitcoin’s price briefly dips back below $80,000, it is unlikely to shift into a downtrend after such a strong rally. Of course, there is always a small chance this could happen.
September is also drawing to a close, and it has been an excellent month for cryptocurrencies. Even the stock markets haven’t seen a significant decline.
The primary macroeconomic risk remains the situation in the Middle East. The war remains unresolved, and an escalation could trigger unpleasant shocks in stock markets—and, by extension, crypto markets. Barring any dramatic news from the Middle East, the new bull market should gain real momentum in the coming months.
It is worth remembering that Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) periodically undergo corrections of tens of percent, even in a bull market. Each dip triggers panic among investors—especially early in a bull market—as many fear the market is reverting to a downtrend. For long-term investors, such declines are simply buying opportunities.