News
22
Feb

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Market overview 2/22: The Ukraine crisis had an impact on the market

The crisis in Ukraine has impacted stock markets and the crypto market recently. Investors are nervous right now. The crypto market has gone down almost seven days straight. Smaller altcoins have performed better than large-cap coins, again. Terra is the only positive sign in the DeFi sector.

Bitcoin lost three weeks of gains

Bitcoin’s price is $37.400 at the time of writing this article. The price was $44.300 a week ago and $43.800 two weeks back. Now we have returned back in time to the first days of February.

The graph below shows Bitcoin’s price development. One candle represents one day. The graph also shows the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

btc-220222

As the graph shows, the past week has been brutal. Five out of the previous six days are red candles. The only green day was also just marginally positive. Bitcoin’s price dropped from $45.000 to almost $36.000. This bottom was found last night. The price has since recovered about four percent.

The price has fallen mostly due to geopolitical reasons. The crisis in Ukraine escalated to a new level on Monday. The threat of a full-scale war in Ukraine has made investors nervous for some time now. It doesn’t make things any easier that Fed is about to raise interest rates in March.

The market seems really on the edge right now. Even if the Ukraine situation has been on the news for months, investors seem to react to the news every day again. Unfortunately, Bitcoin is heavily correlated with the stock market, as we have written multiple times before.

Let’s look at the Heikin Ashi weekly candles next. We have started to follow this indicator for a couple of weeks now.

heikin-ashi-220222

Heikin Ashi candles filter out volatility and keep their color unchanged longer than traditional candles. Hence, it’s a good tool to analyze trends and trend changes. Heikin Ashi candles have now turned red as well. Not only the current candle is red but last week’s candle turned from green to red as well.

Bitcoin’s price doesn’t look great on a monthly level either. If the price doesn’t close above $38.500 next Monday, we’d witness a fourth consecutive red month. This hasn’t happened since the year 2018. That was one of the longest bear markets in Bitcoin history.

February has so far been a positive month. Now, things have changed. The crisis in Ukraine is escalating to new levels as well. We should expect more uncertainty and volatility in the coming days.

The big question is: how much of this news is already priced in? The markets can’t and won’t go down forever because of the same news. Eventually, markets will turn green again when assets become too oversold and investors start to look at the fundamentals again.

Terra UST has moved to the top 15 rankings

Next, we’ll analyze the altcoin market. It’s no surprise that major altcoins have performed worse than Bitcoin in these uncertain times. This is not the case with the whole market, though. When you scroll down outside the top 30 coins, almost everything is green.

Let’s see how the “blue chip” coins are doing. The list below shows the top 15 cryptocurrency rankings and the performance against Bitcoin (not USD).

altcoins-220222

Winners are in short supply this week. Only Terra’s Luna token has outperformed Bitcoin by more than five percent. Luna has been boosted by the ever-growing popularity of the UST stablecoin, which has also entered the top 15 list for the first time.

When we browse further sown in the top 100 list, we see that the most altcoins are up 5-15% vs. Bitcoin. There are three coins that have outperformed Bitcoin by more than 20 percent: Klaytn, NEO, and Celsius. These projects have been rarely (if ever) mentioned in our market overviews.

Klaytn is the most unknown of these projects. It’s a smart contract platform operating mostly in South Korea. Klaytn token got a price boost since the project announced a partnership with Animal Concerts. This is a company that organizes and promotes concerts in metaverses.

NEO is also a smart contract platform. It reached the peak of its popularity during the 2017/2018 altcoin boom. In recent years, however, NEO has fallen far behind in the platform race. The project has connections to the Chinese government. This helped NEO to be chosen as the provider of the NFT infrastructure of BSN (Blockchain-based Service Network).

Celsius has probably been boosted by the news regarding its competitor, BlockFi. We wrote last week how BlockFi had reached an agreement with the SEC. This agreement cost BlockFi 100 million dollars. They also need to register the crypto loan product again in the United States, which could take time.

Celsius is one of the most popular crypto loan platforms with BlockFi and Nexo. It might face similar difficulties with the SEC in the future.

DeFi sector is in a downtrend

The beginning of the year 2022 has been quiet in the DeFi sector. The TVL number, which describes the liquidity stored in DeFi protocols, has been in a downtrend for three months.

It’s not surprising to see the TVL fall again when considering the brutal downtrend in the crypto market. The TVL is now 193.67 billion dollars, down from 208.8 billion dollars a week ago.

defi-tvl-220222

It looks like crypto investors are not selling their coins for stablecoins and depositing them to DeFi protocols. Some might do this, but the liquidity is still draining from DeFi. We must also remember that ”normal cryptos”, like ETH, are also stored as collateral. The drop in dollar value of these coins reduces the TVL too.

The past week was as quiet as the week before that. There have been no changes in the protocol rankings of DeFi.

defo-prot-220222

The TVL downfall is quite evenly split between the protocols. Terra is the only exception, which we already mentioned earlier. Its Luna token was the best-performing top altcoin and Anchor is the only top DeFi protocol increasing liquidity.

Let’s look at the blockchain rankings too.

defi-chains-220222

Terra is the only platform that hasn’t lost liquidity in the past week. It hasn’t moved up in rankings since Terra was already in the 2nd place. Terra is now the strongest challenger of Ethereum with a wide margin.

There is just one change in this list: Polygon and Tron have swapped positions with a small margin.

 

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